Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 22.985886 25.013795 27.204275 29.757453 32.665917 35.892927 39.767849
2025-12-14 19.623812 22.355021 25.508977 29.463669 34.352306 40.282857 48.157982
2025-12-21 17.931580 21.213176 25.221735 30.579831 37.717295 47.151264 61.030322
2025-12-28 16.125244 19.623819 24.084299 30.354198 39.232303 51.858643 72.234043
2026-01-04 14.798106 18.439393 23.253004 30.321789 40.894799 56.994353 85.442868
2026-01-11 13.862792 17.640229 22.798909 30.685413 43.109601 63.340535 102.605858
2026-01-18 12.932512 16.737689 22.073960 30.509922 44.402237 68.406388 119.240159
2026-01-25 12.126509 15.925552 21.377579 30.256006 45.476017 73.272383 137.383138
2026-02-01 11.481652 15.283155 20.856910 30.191311 46.824676 78.920464 159.829556
2026-02-08 10.879675 14.651771 20.286753 29.960443 47.811396 84.061835 183.705493
2026-02-15 10.332740 14.059961 19.721598 29.661357 48.603130 88.972206 209.870535
2026-02-22 9.848416 13.528377 19.204689 29.380334 49.371389 94.022015 239.927805
2026-03-01 9.425683 13.072444 18.786197 29.251640 50.478966 100.342716 280.165646
2026-03-08 9.006570 12.596881 18.300433 28.949856 51.185582 105.930245 323.421664
2026-03-15 8.870993 12.560331 18.540937 30.030528 55.095478 121.501281 431.703795
2026-03-22 8.523346 12.160018 18.129939 29.806981 56.008679 128.888489 511.139864
2026-03-29 8.234528 11.838808 17.832014 29.773639 57.370308 138.250323 622.795763
2026-04-05 8.026952 11.639145 17.731874 30.127051 59.752924 152.094634 807.670155
2026-04-12 7.757246 11.320629 17.396427 29.955672 60.770441 161.673918 992.306324
2026-04-19 7.495911 11.003019 17.041880 29.708090 61.549513 170.822875 1218.499862
2026-04-26 7.277302 10.747432 16.784695 29.644962 62.829873 182.765653 1564.772550
2026-05-03 7.051623 10.469001 16.467890 29.419965 63.622076 193.176071 1986.875989
2026-05-10 6.831579 10.190587 16.135000 29.128495 64.179244 202.978691 2530.452654